Once you start noticing the ideology of managerialism - which I'm distinguishing from the task of mgmt - you see it everywhere. For example, in the church, most church officers are corporate middle managers who hand-down government-aligned decision summaries then hold "listening sessions" where feedback goes into a black hole. In tech, managers will tell you R&D is a "cost center" which means engineering salaries are a cost to be minimized like IT yet there are tons of "directors of this" and "managers of that" running around having meetings with customers and internal stakeholders that always result in the need for some R&D guy to do more with less like the horse in Animal Farm. The current order seems to force you to choose between being the horse or one of the pigs.
The way out of managerial capitalism is unclear - we're not in an era where makers as sole proprietors can really compete in complex markets, are we? For the blue-collar guys, we've offshored most of the light mfg onramps to Asia (MBAs did this in the '90s). The trades can't absorb all of these guys, can they? What about in the white collar world - do you try to become some sort of 1099 hired gun? That seems like it might work for software, but what about the other engineering disciplines?
Funnily enough, I was discussing almost this very topic in a GC the day before you published. Someone (a CPA) remarked AI was going to replace us all (white collar workers). I responded that seemed about right as 2/3rds of white collar work was a scam:
"(7) Sort of related to the principal-agent problem and the requirement for high-agency: "Everything is a Scam". Here are some examples I followed over the past decade: modern art, war (2,3), corporate governance (2,3,4,5), health care and big pharma, government (2), and fractional reserve banking. Having to go to college to get a job instead of taking an IQ test and getting applied vocational training is a Scam. That's 2/3 of GDP right there!"
I added, there's some subtle irony here. Luddites attacked the industrial revolution because it was making ~2/3rds (I dunno... some big number) of Europe's GDP (jobs) technologically obsolete. However, from this far away the jobs were at least real. Those laborers were producing goods and services. Today's scam economy employment does not produce anything of value-added. It's middle class jobs program.
Then thinking about it a bit longer: it does create demand though. Demand for goods and services that the non-scam economy laborers provide.
So while we, the few and the proud value producers -- blue collar guys, engineers, and so forth, lament not getting the "fair share" of the value we create, in aggregate, we do need the scam economy to induce demand. Further, from the Elite's perspective playing Civ IRL, they don't care about the distinction of scam vs. productive economy. They just look at: is production meeting demand, and it largely is, so they DGAF.
I liken it to the de-agriculturalization wave. The one farmer that stayed on the farm is producing enough food for the 99 others that left. Maybe he's salty about it, but from the Elite's (and in this case everyone else's) perspective, that's a Win.
What was lamentable and now progressed to outrageous, is we've collectively made consumption our false god. We didn't get anything of substance by expanding the scam economy to soak up women into the labor force (lamentable). And now we're doubling down on stupid by bringing in millions of foreigners (outrageous).
These foreigners have nothing to offer the West (it's not just a USA problem) except consumption demand, which (like farmers did before) its reasonably to think the productive 20% will continue to fill.
But you can see from the Elite's myopic perspective they think this is a Win. Foreigners are head count to them. They feel as good about it as a semi-worthless middle manager seeing his direct reports go up. They are insulated from the crime and, on-whole, benefit from the inflation.
So the white pill is whether you're in the value-add economy or scam-economy, it's reasonable to think our needs will continue to be met. Maybe slack off a little now and then. Go on sabbaticals and take the long view.
The black pill is they've irreversibly wrecked the country (whichever western country you choose) just like they wrecked the Upper Midwest by the Great Migration. In which case, prepare yourself to gentrify the global south. It's not too late and it's not any worse than what our forefathers contended with when they left their homes as explorers and settlers.
Excellent poast.
Once you start noticing the ideology of managerialism - which I'm distinguishing from the task of mgmt - you see it everywhere. For example, in the church, most church officers are corporate middle managers who hand-down government-aligned decision summaries then hold "listening sessions" where feedback goes into a black hole. In tech, managers will tell you R&D is a "cost center" which means engineering salaries are a cost to be minimized like IT yet there are tons of "directors of this" and "managers of that" running around having meetings with customers and internal stakeholders that always result in the need for some R&D guy to do more with less like the horse in Animal Farm. The current order seems to force you to choose between being the horse or one of the pigs.
The way out of managerial capitalism is unclear - we're not in an era where makers as sole proprietors can really compete in complex markets, are we? For the blue-collar guys, we've offshored most of the light mfg onramps to Asia (MBAs did this in the '90s). The trades can't absorb all of these guys, can they? What about in the white collar world - do you try to become some sort of 1099 hired gun? That seems like it might work for software, but what about the other engineering disciplines?
Another banger stack post, Tom. Awesome.
Funnily enough, I was discussing almost this very topic in a GC the day before you published. Someone (a CPA) remarked AI was going to replace us all (white collar workers). I responded that seemed about right as 2/3rds of white collar work was a scam:
"(7) Sort of related to the principal-agent problem and the requirement for high-agency: "Everything is a Scam". Here are some examples I followed over the past decade: modern art, war (2,3), corporate governance (2,3,4,5), health care and big pharma, government (2), and fractional reserve banking. Having to go to college to get a job instead of taking an IQ test and getting applied vocational training is a Scam. That's 2/3 of GDP right there!"
https://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2020/12/what-intellectual-progress-did-i-make.html
I added, there's some subtle irony here. Luddites attacked the industrial revolution because it was making ~2/3rds (I dunno... some big number) of Europe's GDP (jobs) technologically obsolete. However, from this far away the jobs were at least real. Those laborers were producing goods and services. Today's scam economy employment does not produce anything of value-added. It's middle class jobs program.
Then thinking about it a bit longer: it does create demand though. Demand for goods and services that the non-scam economy laborers provide.
So while we, the few and the proud value producers -- blue collar guys, engineers, and so forth, lament not getting the "fair share" of the value we create, in aggregate, we do need the scam economy to induce demand. Further, from the Elite's perspective playing Civ IRL, they don't care about the distinction of scam vs. productive economy. They just look at: is production meeting demand, and it largely is, so they DGAF.
I liken it to the de-agriculturalization wave. The one farmer that stayed on the farm is producing enough food for the 99 others that left. Maybe he's salty about it, but from the Elite's (and in this case everyone else's) perspective, that's a Win.
What was lamentable and now progressed to outrageous, is we've collectively made consumption our false god. We didn't get anything of substance by expanding the scam economy to soak up women into the labor force (lamentable). And now we're doubling down on stupid by bringing in millions of foreigners (outrageous).
These foreigners have nothing to offer the West (it's not just a USA problem) except consumption demand, which (like farmers did before) its reasonably to think the productive 20% will continue to fill.
But you can see from the Elite's myopic perspective they think this is a Win. Foreigners are head count to them. They feel as good about it as a semi-worthless middle manager seeing his direct reports go up. They are insulated from the crime and, on-whole, benefit from the inflation.
So the white pill is whether you're in the value-add economy or scam-economy, it's reasonable to think our needs will continue to be met. Maybe slack off a little now and then. Go on sabbaticals and take the long view.
The black pill is they've irreversibly wrecked the country (whichever western country you choose) just like they wrecked the Upper Midwest by the Great Migration. In which case, prepare yourself to gentrify the global south. It's not too late and it's not any worse than what our forefathers contended with when they left their homes as explorers and settlers.
I've just ordered your book "the boring diet" as a very modest token of my appreciation for all your excellent analysis & writing.