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Michael M's avatar

How do you reconcile the advancements in productivity? Although number of people employed in manufacturing has plummeted (1), real output has stayed about constant or gone up (2). That seems to suggest that returning to past levels of manufacturing employment would result in massive amounts of output—way beyond returning to prior levels of industrialization. Having a goal of returning to that level of manufacturing employment may be unrealistic.

1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/manemp

2. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS/

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Tom Owens's avatar

It's hard to know. I enjoy consuming a lot more than the average American. If we produced more, we could all consume more, so who knows what the upper limit for demand is in this country. Wouldn't it be fun to have an economy where average people could earn enough to see their consumption grow more proportional to their productivity? I think more people would enjoy their jobs making more stuff for a domestic market with extra money in their pocket. We should find out!

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Brettbaker's avatar

Part of "Why GDP is not acccurate"; a car part that is used in building a car in a factory contributes $0 dollars to GDP. So a starter made in Mexico contributes the same as an American made starter to GDP if it goes into an American assembled car. There's a difference in American employment, though.

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Michael M's avatar

Well if a starter is imported from Mexico, it’ll be subtracted from GDP as an import. Then when the car is sold in the US, the entire value of the car gets added to consumption, so ultimately it’s value added that’s reflected in the GDP (price of car - price of imported parts).

Looks like over the past 20 years, inflation adjusted value added by US manufacturing has actually gone up (1), even as manufacturing as a share of GDP has fallen (2). So over the past 20 years, we’re employing fewer people in manufacturing and producing more, but other parts of the economy are growing relatively faster.

1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RVAMA

2. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPMA

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PdxSag's avatar

I vacillate between a) Trump is a retarded Boomer fighting the last war and b) politicians and the globalist capital classes arrayed against him won't negotiate in good faith for an equitable solution, hence he has to take the scorched-Earth approach with facially retarded self-imposed deadlines. I'm aware it could be both. Lol. I'm certain it's neither.

As far as pharma manufacturing, did you see our review of 'Bottle of Lies'? It is 100% regulatory arbitrage. Outrageous it was allowed to happen and indicative of the depth of evil and greed we are dealing with on the part of group b).

So yeah, maybe a targeted approach is impossible. Any instrument finer than a club to the head won't get the job done.

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Tom Owens's avatar

Thanks for the reminder, I added a link to your review. I also added a coda commentary on the impact on prices: https://tomowens.substack.com/i/160790814/coda-impact-on-prices

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PdxSag's avatar

Oh, and thank you. :)

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Jim Grey's avatar

I work for a software company that serves the medical device industry. I've learned that QA people are never to be trifled with. Part of the gig is fanatical devotion.

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